Distribution
Understanding distribution is probably the most important concept that a Skat player needs to understand and utilize. Once the knowledge of distribution is firmly established in your mind, you can use this information to correctly lead trumps and anticipate your opponents leads.
Using our knowledge of distribution, the player can minimize the number of points per trick the opponents capture. And that’s called trump management.
Expected Trump Division
4 Trumps: 4-4-3
5 Trumps: 5-4-2
6 Trumps: 6-3-2
7 Trumps: 7-3-1
4 Trump hands are rare and your side suits have to be very strong. They usually occur at a minimum bid with the player having to use a little imagination. Even though you have only four trumps, it is very important, if possible, to keep leading trumps. Many four trump hands are lost because the bidder failed to keep leading trumps.
5 & 6 Trump hands: Most of the solos that are played are of the 5 and 6 trump variety. The 6 trump game is more desirable than the five trump game due to the expected trump division. However, the principle for leading trumps is the same whether you have five trumps or six trumps. Take notice at the expected trump division for 5 and 6 trumps and notice that in both cases one defender is most likely to have 2 trumps. Anticipating this division, to minimize the points per trick, it is important that the player win the third trick to prevent a smear by the defender who had only two trumps. In other words, play your trumps so that you win the third trick. Many 5 trump hands with two black jacks are defeated because the player came out smoking with the two blackjacks, ran into four trumps, and allowed the defenders to capture two trump tricks with two large smears from his partner. One of my favorite moves with two black jacks and five trumps is to lead the two blackjacks on the second lead and on the fourth lead clear out the trumps. This puts you in the driver seat with the last trump. Obviously, depending on what your trumps and side cards look like, you may want to wait till the third lead to lead your two black jacks.
7 Trump hands: A 7 Trump hand and with weak side cards is a disaster waiting to happen. It is not uncommon to lose 2 or 3 tricks with 2 or 3 big smears. Holding a 7 Trump hand, you may want to sacrifice the first trick to maintain trump control. You need to ask yourself a question before the play begins, what am I going to do if there are three trumps in one hand? That being the case, it will affect your discard and how you play your trumps.
Expected Division 2 cards of a suit
2-5-0 3 times out of a 100
2-4-1 27 times out of a 100
2-3-2 70 times out of a 100
The question is, “Will my A-10 combination walk ?”. Yes, 70% of the time. This also points out why a doubleton lead is a poor defensive choice in any position.
Expected Division 3 cards of a suit
3-4-0 9 times out of a 100
3-3-1 50 times out of a 100
3-2-2 41 times out of a 100
This is the “Holy Grail of Skat”. The understanding of the expected division of a three card suit is the main building block in which you build your skat foundation. The reason it is so important is due to the frequency of a three card suit. It will occur almost every play. For example, you have the bid and you’re sitting back hand. The lead is into a suit which you have three of. It would be safe to assume that it is a singleton lead. If you are middle hand with the bid and the lead is into a suit which you have three of. It would be safe to assume your opponent is leading long. Note, one of the fundamental rules of skat, in the backhand lead short and in the forehand lead long. Another example if you have A-K-9, lead the 9 and lose one trick as oppose to leading the Ace and losing two tricks with two smears. With the 10-K-Q combination it would be better to lead the 10 and lose 21 points than to have your 10 cut and lose 32 points. The bidder has a strong Grand play. You hold CA-CQ-C9 and SK-S8-S9. You have 20 points with 4 tricks to go. You hold CA and SK-S8-S9. Your partner by this time should have shown you his slick spade, so you throw your club ACE and catch a trick with the spade king. One of the worst holdings is a A-7-8. Not only do you lose two large tricks but with bad luck you could also lose your ace. How to play a three card same suit combination will many times determine if a game is won or lost and it happens all the time.
Expected Division 4 cards of a suit
4-3-0 21 times out of a 100
4-2-1 79 times out of a 100
Almost 80% of the time when holding 4 cards of a suit you can expect 4-2-1 split. With an A-K-Q-9, lead the 9 and lose 10 points instead of 21 points. You will win every trick with a A-10-7-8 combination 80% of the time. Pay attention to the cards that hit the table, once a card falls of a suit that you have 4 of, the rest belong to you, if you have the Ace and 10.
Expected Division 5 cards of a suit
5-2-0 49 times out of a 100
5-1-1 51 times out of a 100
The question is “I have the A-K-Q-9-8, what are the odds of the other two cards being split?”
Answer:50-50.
In the words of Clint Eastwood “You got to ask yourself a question, do you feel lucky?”
The Cleveland Skat Club
Bill Thompson has a built a wonderful website where you can access all kind of information concerning Skat. Below are three links to his website addressing plays by the offence and defense.
Offense 101
And of course Joe Wergin in his book "WERGIN ON skat and sheepshead" is full of information and examples concerning offense and defense.